The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
During Week 19, MABUX World Bunker Index was rather steady with no any drastic changes in values. 380 HSFO index rose by only 0.37 USD: from 432.74 USD/MT to 433.11 USD/MT, VLSFO Index increased by 3.57 USD: from 528.43 USD/MT to 532.00 USD/MT, while MGO Index gained 8.56 USD (from 610.30 USD/MT to 618.86 USD/MT).
The MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index, available from April 29, 2021 and calculated as an average price of LNG as marine fuel in the ARA region, rose on Week 19 and showed weekly average 565.84 USD / MT (+ 41.70 USD). LNG Bunker Price Indices in major European ports and Regions, Gas Futures for TTF, NBP and Henry Hub, LNG Bunker Market news and more are available in new MABUX LNG Bunker Section on www.mabux.com
The average Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – widened slightly to 97.95 USD (versus 96.78 USD last week, plus 1.16 USD) and came much closer to 100 USD key point. SS Spread in Rotterdam has widened during the week (plus 4.17 USD) and now its average mark is staying well above 100 USD level (105.00 USD versus 100.83 last week). In Singapore, SS Spread has lost 1.00 USD: from 112.83 USD to 111.83 USD. More details are available in new MABUX Differential Section on www.mabux.com.
Correlation of MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in the four global largest hubs showed this week that 380 HSFO fuel was still undercharged in all four selected ports ranging from minus 3 USD at Houston (vs minus 6 USD a week before) and minus14 USD at Fujairah (vs minus 7 USD) up to minus 30 USD in Rotterdam (vs minus 26 USD) and minus 40 USD in Singapore (vs minus 38 USD). The margin of the underestimation has not had any drastic changes.
The situation with VLSFO bunker prices, according to MABUX DBP Index, practically has not changed as well: underpricing in Rotterdam by minus 18 USD (vs minus 15 USD), in Fujairah – by minus 37 USD (vs minus 28 USD), in Singapore – by minus 36 USD (vs minus 33 USD). In Houston, VLSFO remained overcharged by plus 6 USD (versus plus 2 USD last week).
MABUX DBP Index also registered undercharge of MGO LS in all selected ports ranging from minus 25 USD in Houston (versus minus 18 USD last week) up to minus 50 USD in Singapore (versus 47 USD) and minus 52 USD in Fujairah (versus minus 38 USD).
Further details on the inclusion of shipping in the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) had been expected in June. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS forms part of an ambitious legislative package linked to the European Green Deal, and more specifically to the EC’s Climate Target Plan which is focused on raising the EU’s GHG emissions reduction target for 2030 from an earlier target of 40% to at least 55% (compared to a 1990 base line).
The EC held a public consultation period on the inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS which closed at the end of February. The implementation of legislation on an ETS for shipping could take place as soon as 2022. It is not yet known whether Europe will include shipping in its current ETS or whether a shipping-specific system will be established.