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Global Grain Trade Forecast Lowered

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released their latest global grain export forecast for the upcoming 2022/23 season and has reduced its expectations.

It is noteworthyWorld wheat flour trade in marketing year 2022-23 was revised downward by 500,000 tonnes (wheat equivalent) in the latest International Grains Council (IGC) quarterly forecast, which appeared in the Council’s July Grain Market Report,

The IGC projected this year’s global flour trade at 14.3 million tonnes, which would still be slightly higher than the 14.2 million tonnes traded in 2021-22 and the highest since 2019-20, when 14.7 million tonnes were shipped.

The trade forecast is still very preliminary, but of note is that 488.9 million tons of exports are now expected.  This is 2.9 million tons (-1%) less than was forecast a month ago and would mark a year-on-year decline of 20.5 million tons (-4%). 

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However, global soybean exports (soybeans are not technically classified as a grain) are now expected to rise year-on-year by 24.5 million tons (discussed in more detail below).

The USDA is now forecasting that global coarse grain exports in 2022/23 will total 226.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons (-1%) less than was forecast a month ago but would mark a year-on-year decline of 25 million tons (-10%).

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Global wheat exports are expected to total 208.9 million tons. This is 200,000 tons more than was forecast a month ago and would mark a year-on-year increase of 5.7 million tons (3%).

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Global soybean exports are expected to total 167.9 million tons. This is 1.2 million tons (-1%) than was forecast a month ago and would mark a year-on-year increase of 14.5 million tons (9%).

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Global soymeal exports are expected to total 70 million tons. This is 100,000 tons less than was forecast a month ago but would mark a year-on-year increase of 900,000 tons (1%).

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By Jeffrey Landsberg

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